INDIANAPOLIS — Former Gov. Mitch Daniels said he didn't "see the point" of redistricting in Indiana, just as Vice President JD Vance was in the state pressing Republicans for an edge in the contest for control of the House.

“It would just be wrong,” Daniels told POLITICO. "People there have a right to pick the person they want."

Vance traveled to the Hoosier State on Thursday to ask lawmakers to redistrict — potentially helping create 10 new seats for the GOP — ahead of the 2026 midterms. The visit comes as the White House continues to pressure Republicans in Texas to enact a new congressional map there that would generate up to five new GOP seats in the Lone Star state. Texas Democrats this week fled their state to avoid a quorum and halt the state Legislature's business.

Daniels had sharp criticism for President Donald Trump’s redistricting push, saying the president “could’ve just kept quiet.”

“By spouting off in that way, he turns it into this partisan wrangle that we now see," Daniels said in the interview.

Still, Daniels accused Democrats of having a history of using redistricting against Republicans over the years.

"It's high season for hypocrisy," he added, noting Democrats have also gerrymandered.

Gov. Mike Braun hasn’t committed to holding a special session to redistrict; Daniels pointed out that Indiana is already a Republican stronghold, holding seven of Indiana’s nine seats.

“My sense is you'd have to torture the lines to eke out another one somehow,” Daniels said. "It would be so overtly partisan that I would hope that they would abstain from it."

If redistricting were to happen, Daniels said, "the ideal ought to be districts which make geographic sense” and “cross as few jurisdictional lines as possible."

Should Braun call for the special session, Indiana Democrats would have limited leverage, as their Republican counterparts hold a supermajority in the Legislature. Daniels said he has not been in touch with House Speaker Todd Houston on the topic.

Daniels was one of the architects of Republican supermajorities in the Legislature, and wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post last year lamenting “one-party rule.”

“The gerrymandering that once exaggerated a dominant party’s political margin is no longer much of a factor; social clustering and these other factors have often done a more effective job than the political bosses ever did,” he wrote. “In many jurisdictions today, one would have to reverse gerrymander, mixing geographies and crossing all kinds of legal boundary lines, to produce a truly competitive electorate.”

In his interview with POLITICO, Daniels said gerrymandering means that "you don't get the balanced, competitive districts that many of us believe would make for a healthier political system."

INDIANAPOLIS — Republican Gov. Mike Braun remained noncommittal about a mid-decade redistricting push following his meeting with Vice President JD Vance in Indiana on Thursday.

“We covered a wide array of topics. We listened," Braun told reporters in response to a question about whether an agreement was reached.

The meeting — which took place amid sustained booing by protesters gathered inside the statehouse — went “pretty good,” Braun said.

Vance's visit to the state comes amid a push from President Donald Trump's team to redraw maps "everywhere where redistricting is an option." A plan in Texas is already well underway, where Republican lawmakers drew a new map that could net Republicans as many as five Republican-leaning seats, and Democrats in the Lone Star state fled in a last-ditch effort to stop the map from passing.

A black curtain hung in front of the governor’s office as Vance met with legislative leaders, and Vance left the statehouse and headed to a local hotel for a Republican National Committee fundraiser.

Katie Miller, a conservative operative who worked for Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency and is married to White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, is launching a podcast aimed at conservative women, she announced on X on Thursday.

“For years I’ve seen that there isn’t a place for conservative women to gather online,” she said in the announcement. “I wanted to create that space, where we have real, honest conversations with people across the political spectrum and across the world.”

Miller was a top aide for DOGE and had also served in President Donald Trump’s first administration.

She left the government to work directly for the billionaire and said in her announcement she was “concluding” her time working full-time for Musk.

Her podcast will air Mondays, she said.

“As a mom of three young kids, who eats healthy, goes to the gym, works full time, I know there isn’t a podcast for women like myself,” she said. “Hope you’ll join me.”

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton launched an investigation into a political organization led by former presidential candidate Beto O’Rourke for helping Texas Democrats block newly proposed congressional maps.

In a Wednesday afternoon press release, Paxton said the O’Rourke-led group, Powered by People, may have violated bribery, campaign finance and abuse of office laws, citing “public reports” that Powered by People was “bankrolling” the Texas House Democrats.

The organization’s purported involvement in helping fund Democrats’ out-of-state travels was first reported by The Texas Tribune. POLITICO has not independently confirmed the report.

"The guy impeached for bribery is going after the folks trying to stop the theft of five Congressional seats," O'Rourke said in response to Paxton's announcement. "Let’s stop these thugs before they steal our country.”

Paxton — a Republican who is also primarying Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) — has vowed to seek the expulsion of Democratic state lawmakers who fled the state this weekend to prevent the legislature from hitting quorum, preventing Republicans from passing a gerrymandered congressional map that could give the party as many as five more House seats in the midterm elections.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott attempted to accelerate the process by filing an emergency petition against Texas House Democratic Caucus Chair Gene Wu with the state’s Supreme Court on Tuesday. But Paxton and Abbott face legal and procedural hurdles as they attempt to force Democrats back to the state for the special session called by Abbott last month.

“Texas cannot be bought. I look forward to thoroughly reviewing all of the documents and communications obtained throughout this investigation,” Paxton said in the press release. “These jet-setting runaways have already lost public trust by abandoning our state, and Texans deserve to know if they received illegal bribes to do it.”

Paxton also said he had issued a “Request to Examine,” requiring the organization to supply his office with documents and communications related to its alleged involvement in the quorum break.

With help from Amira McKee

🚨 🚨 — “Trump Weighs Getting Involved in New York City Mayor Race,” by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos, Jeremy W. Peters, Maggie Haberman and Katherine Rosman: “President Trump may have moved out of New York City, but he has privately discussed whether to intercede in its fractious race for mayor to try to stop Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, according to eight people briefed on the discussions.” (More below)

​​CRY ME A RIVER: Even as Gov. Kathy Hochul doubles down on her Democratic gerrymandering plan, she said she’s feeling overcome with despondency for New York Republicans who could lose their seats when she tries to redraw New York’s maps to boost her party.

“I feel really sad,” Hochul said today, when asked if she had a message for any GOP reps who might see their seat erased if she pushes through a full-fledged gerrymander.

Hochul and California Gov. Gavin Newsom sprinted to the front lines of the mucky redistricting war and have vowed to redraw their own maps to add more Democratic seats ever since President Donald Trump called on Texas to abruptly redraw its Congressional maps to add 5 more GOP seats.

Luckily, Hochul noted, there’s a way out.

His name is Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, and, she said, he has the political power and sway in Washington to end partisan gerrymandering with his forthcoming federal bill that would ban the practice nationwide.

“He has so much enormous power in Washington,” Hochul said of Lawler.

Sike! She was kidding. She doesn’t feel sad. She doesn’t think Lawler has any juice in D.C. and she definitely doesn’t seem to be slowing down her push to gerrymander the hell out of New York in what she says is a response to Texas’ efforts.

On Tuesday, Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin indicated he’s encouraging other Democratic governors to consider redrawing their maps too. And the red state of Missouri, which has two GOP House seats, could be Republicans’ next gerrymandering target.

As the redistricting war looks to be going nuclear, Hochul is daring Republicans like Lawler to loudly call for an end to their party’s redistricting effort in Texas.

“Tell them to call the president of their own party and say, ‘Stand down in the war with New York and California and other Democratic states,’” Hochul said. “If you want to stop what you’re doing in Texas, I'll stand down. You started it. You end it.”

“This is a guy who’s now saying, ‘I’m going to introduce a bill to get it changed,’” she said. “The same guy who promised a full restoration of the state and local tax deduction comes back far short from that and spins it as a win that everybody's buying. He has no power. He won't get it done. And I'm not sympathetic because he was silent.”

Lawler’s office noted that the increases in state and local tax deductions he fought with Trump for during the creation of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act provides relief for most of his district, with only the top 10 percent of taxpayers not getting a tax cut.

“Kathy Hochul is not just the worst Governor in America, she’s also the dumbest,” Lawler said in a statement. “After years of calling for the SALT cap to be fixed, she’s now attacking the solution because Democrats weren’t the ones to get it done, my New York GOP colleagues and I were. No one believes a word she says. Her own colleagues in the State Legislature mock her at every turn. What a pathetic excuse for a leader of New York State.” — Jason Beeferman

TRUMP EYES NYC MAYOR’S RACE: Trump is “very interested” in the New York City mayoral race, said Republican billionaire John Catsimatidis, who is friendly with both Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Eric Adams. Catsimatidis said he dined Friday with Trump.

“He’s a New York guy, he grew up in New York,” Catsimatidis told Playbook. “He loves New York. He wants to make sure there’s proper accounting in New York, that the quality of life goes on in New York and that we don’t lose any more population.”

Trump hasn’t committed to a role in the race, though, and Catsimatidis said he wants the president to hold off — for now.

“I asked him to put off decisions on anything until September,” Catsimatidis said.

The New York Times reported on the president’s interest earlier today.

The Times also reported that during a closed-door meeting with Lawler last month in the White House, Trump discussed the mayor’s race with the Hudson Valley congressman.

A person familiar with the meeting told Playbook that Trump did not express a specific preference for any of the mayoral candidates, but rather was interested in who has the best shot at winning.

Trump’s involvement would come as Cuomo’s pushing for the field to coalesce around the strongest challenger to Mamdani by mid-September — a dynamic that currently favors the former governor, according to most polls.

“The president runs the country and what is said to him at the dinner party is, ‘We saved America, we saved the free world, now it’s time to save New York," Catsimatidis said. "I’m pretty sure he agreed with it.” — Nick Reisman and Jason Beeferman

ANDREW CUOMO, THE REPLY GUY: If you haven’t been on X in the last 24 hours (lucky you) you’ve missed Cuomo’s furious — and curious — barrage of posts and replies.

Since Monday, Cuomo has expressed gratitude to someone with the username “Andrew Cuomo is a Sex Pest.” He called on Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani to “Boycott, Divest, and Sanction” his property in Uganda — a country, he noted, “that murders LGBTQIA+ people.” And the former governor even responded earnestly to someone else who told him to “Give it up grandpa.”

“No grandkids yet- but I've got the experience and the ability to get things done,” Cuomo wrote.

The mayoral hopeful and failed primary candidate has posted over 35 times on X over the past two days, mostly with a new, direct tone that would’ve been unbecoming of the highly-coordinated primary campaign he was running just two months ago.

It’s a new social media approach from the 67-year-old and his campaign after his millennial foe Mamdani successfully utilized the medium to handily beat him in the Democratic primary and surge the under-30 turnout.

So is Andrew himself behind the account?

“We hired this really smart kid named A.J. Parkinson,” Rich Azzopardi told Playbook, an apparent tongue-in-cheek reference to a fictitious character Cuomo’s father first brought to life and quoted frequently in the early ‘80s.

Coincidentally, Parkinson emerged around the same time Cuomo took his last nap — a fact we now know because he told us so in one of his many replies on X this afternoon.

MAGA influencer Laura Loomer loves it.

“W,” she wrote in response to Cuomo’s call for a Uganda-centric BDS movement.

Mamdani’s campaign did not comment on Cuomo’s new online approach. — Jason Beeferman

NO MATCHING FUNDS FOR ADAMS: The New York City Campaign Finance Board denied Adams millions of dollars in matching funds for the tenth time this morning — and suggested in a strongly worded statement that Adams will not be getting a penny anytime soon, POLITICO reported today.

The regulatory body denied Adams the public funding he’s seeking for his general election bid on two grounds: His campaign has not submitted required paperwork, and the board has reason to believe the campaign violated the law.

The board’s decision escalates a long-simmering standoff with the incumbent and hobbles Adams’ ability to compete at a time when he is already at a severe disadvantage. The mayor dropped out of the Democratic primary after the controversial dismissal of a federal bribery case against him. He is now running in the crowded general election as an independent.

Fellow independents Cuomo and Jim Walden are hoping to take down Mamdani, a democratic socialist who has solidly staked out the left lane in the general election. So is GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa.

Cuomo’s base overlaps with Adams’, as does Sliwa’s, although to a lesser degree. Should the multimillion-dollar hole in his war chest persist, the mayor will be forced to continue the time-consuming process of fundraising long after his opponents, placing yet another obstacle in the way of his longshot comeback bid.

Adams’ campaign did not immediately comment on the board’s latest decision. — Joe Anuta

— PAC CASH: The pro-Adams PAC, Empower NYC, has raised $1 million in support of the mayor’s long-shot reelection bid, including from crypto industry donors. (City and State)

— NUCLEAR OPTION: Hochul’s administration wants to continue subsidizing New York’s aging nuclear facilities until 2050. (POLITICO Pro)

— RYDER’S LAW: The death of a New York City carriage horse has renewed calls for City Hall to phase-out horse-drawn carriages. (CBS News)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

CHICAGO — The Texas Democrats staying in a Chicago suburb to protest a controversial redistricting map in their state said Wednesday that they are facing threats against their group.

The St. Charles Police Department, which oversees the jurisdiction where they are staying, confirmed a potential bomb threat was made.

“This morning, a threat was made against the safety of the members of the Texas House Democratic Caucus. We are safe, we are secure, and we are undeterred. We are grateful for Governor [JB] Pritzker, local, and state law enforcement for their quick action to ensure our safety,” caucus leadership said in a statement.

The St. Charles Police Department said the threat came in at about 7:15 a.m. Central time.

“St. Charles Police Department responded to a report of a potential bomb threat at the Q-Center hotel and convention complex” in St. Charles, the city’s police department said in a statement, and local police and the Kane County Sheriff’s Office bomb squad “conducted a thorough search and no device was found.”

“In response to the threat, 400 people were immediately evacuated and the area was secured as bomb squad units conducted their investigation,” police said.

The guests and staff were allowed to return after police gave clearance to do so.

The Texas statehouse Democrats are in Illinois after leaving their state en masse Sunday in an attempt to prevent a quorum in the Texas state Legislature — and thus stop a vote on a controversial Republican-drawn congressional map that would give as many as five more U.S. House seats to the GOP in the 2026 midterms.

The group postponed a planned press conference with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) after reports of the threat.

With help from Amira McKee

MUTUALLY ASSURED REDISTRICTING: The multi-front, tit-for-tat gerrymandering war is putting New York Republicans in a perilous position, and they’re acting quickly to condemn Hochul — and even buck President Donald Trump — to avoid becoming casualties as Dems seek retaliatory redistricting.

After President Donald Trump pressed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott to redraw his state’s congressional maps in a way that would add five GOP seats, Hochul responded with a pledge to “fight fire with fire.”

New York’s Republican Reps. Mike Lawler, Elise Stefanik, Nicole Malliotakis and Nick LaLota don’t want to become collateral damage. To that end, some are even willing to blast Trump’s efforts in Texas.

“What Texas is doing is wrong and I’m opposed to it,” Lawler texted Playbook, noting that he’s sponsoring a bill with fellow blue state Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley of California that would ban gerrymandering nationwide.

Malliotakis is speaking out against Texas’ redistricting efforts too.

“I may differ in opinion from many of my colleagues on this, particularly the ones from Texas,” she told The Joe Piscopo Show on Monday. “I’m not somebody who’s supportive of any type of gerrymandering.”

Their efforts come as Hochul continues to burn away any pretense that New York’s redistricting process should be independent.

“Up until now, Democrats have treated our political system like it’s still governed by norms, guarded by limits and rooted in fairness,” Hochul wrote in an op-ed published today in the Houston Chronicle. “Rules were meant to be followed. It hurts to say it, but that era has come to an end.”

On Monday, as Hochul hosted Texas lawmakers fleeing their state to prevent passage of redistricting legislation, Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie told New York’s Republicans to pipe up.

“Perhaps the Republican members of Congress here in New York could say to their Republican colleagues in Texas, ‘Hey, slow down on this, because this can also affect us,’” he said.

But the Republicans speaking out about what’s going on deep in the heart of Texas still won’t forget Dems’ redistricting past at home.

New York Democrats tried to redraw district lines in their favor long before Trump told Texas to make changes of its own. In 2021, voters rejected a Democrat-led ballot referendum to weaken the independence of the state’s redistricting process. The next year, the courts blocked their attempts to redraw the maps in a way that would favor Democrats.

“New York Dems have been trying to gerrymander and rig the elections for years, well before what Texas is doing,” Lawler said. “They are not doing this in response, they are using this as cover to justify what they have wanted to do.”

Lawler said he’s still working on the specifics of his federal anti-gerrymandering bill.

Stefanik — who’s considering a gubernatorial run against Hochul — said she would work to prevent mid-decade redistricting in New York if elected governor. But she went silent when Playbook asked her if she’s against mid-decade redistricting in Texas.

“As Governor, Congresswoman Stefanik would support the NY State Constitution that is explicit with once a decade redistricting and the will of the voters of NY that voted for the independent bipartisan commission,” her spokesperson Alex DeGrasse said in a statement. “Congresswoman Stefanik successfully led the effort to protect the integrity of NY elections and fair district lines while Kathy Hochul tried twice to illegally gerrymander and suppress the will of New York voters.”

Hochul spokesperson Jen Goodman responded to New York’s GOP members.

“If New York House Republicans are serious about protecting democracy, they should direct their outrage at Donald Trump and their colleagues in Texas trying to dismantle it,” she said. “Until Texas stands down, Governor Hochul will continue exploring every available option to fight fire with fire and ensure New York voters are not silenced.”— Jason Beeferman

A FEDERAL SUIT AGAINST EVEN-YEAR ELECTIONS: Republicans are planning to file a federal lawsuit challenging New York’s new law moving most local elections to even-numbered years.

The suit is in the works as the state Court of Appeals is scheduled to hear arguments in September in a series of state-level cases brought over the 2023 law, which rescheduled town and county races. A mid-level appellate court concluded in May that the law doesn’t run afoul of the state constitution, despite challenges from eight GOP county executives.

Arguments in the forthcoming federal lawsuit were previewed in an amicus brief filed today in the state’s top court on behalf of the town of Riverhead and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip. They’re saying the state law runs afoul of the U.S. Constitution.

“The primary purpose of the First Amendment is not to increase raw participation numbers, but rather to protect the public dialogue and debate that sits at the very heart of our democracy. When local elections are consolidated with federal and statewide contests, local candidates are pushed to the margins of the ‘public square,’” according to the brief, a copy of which was obtained by Playbook.

“The First Amendment doesn’t stop at the steps of the state capital,” said William A. Brewer III, the counsel representing Riverhead and Pilip. “Our clients contend that in their communities, democracy will be drowned out — not by censorship, but by unnecessary burdens to local speech.”

State Sen. James Skoufis, who sponsored the now-on-the-books bill to reschedule elections, said the suit is evidence local officials like Pilip are “afraid of more voters participating in their elections.”

“This is desperate and pathetic,” Skoufis said. “It is obviously constitutional — there are other states that have done it, there are other jurisdictions that have done it. It unequivocally and dramatically increases voter turnout. So it’s laughable on its face that anyone thinks this isn’t going to be completely thrown out of a courtroom.” — Bill Mahoney

BOOK OF JOB APPROVAL: Mayor Eric Adams held a rally on the steps of City Hall today with a pan-city collection of faith leaders backing his run. The incumbent, who is limping along in the polls and facing high disapproval ratings from voters, used the opportunity to highlight his accomplishments and re-air his longstanding grievances with the press.

Adams, who repeatedly criticized Andrew Cuomo for avoiding the media during the Democratic primary, began the event with a warning: He would not be taking questions.

“After I speak, I’m bouncing,” Adams said. “You’re not going to tarnish the good news of today.”

He closed his remarks by asking God for a “special prayer.”

“Lay hands on our media,” he said. “Heal them. Put honesty in their hearts.”

Adams has taken umbrage at coverage of his since-dismissed federal bribery case, allegations of a quid pro quo with President Donald Trump and corruption probes that hollowed out his inner circle.

As he left, reporters peppered him with queries anyway, prompting the mayor to clap and chant “ask me the good news questions” as he and his retinue disappeared into City Hall. — Joe Anuta

RESOLUTION TO BACK THE BLUE: Stefanik introduced a resolution today to condemn the mass shooting last week in midtown Manhattan, where five were killed including an off-duty NYPD officer.

The measure also condemns “divisive rhetoric and violence against federal, state, and local law enforcement officers and urges lawmakers to redouble their commitment to backing the blue.”

The North Country Republican said in a statement that “anti-police policies should have no place in our great state.”

Meanwhile, on Long Island, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and Rep. Andrew Garbarino, both Republicans, sought to emphasize the importance of training and collaboration among local, state and federal law enforcement officials. They toured the Nassau County Police Department’s intelligence center and police training village.

Garbarino, the new chair of the House Homeland Security Committee, said his focus will be counterterrorism, including in neighboring New York City.

“New York is the greatest city, it’s also the one that’s most top targeted and we have to protect it,” the House member said.

Stefanik and Blakeman, potential candidates for governor next year who are close allies of President Donald Trump, have slammed Democrats for policies and rhetoric they say is dangerous for law enforcement officials. But they did not reference their political affiliation in their remarks today. — Emily Ngo

— MAMDANI DRAWS JEWISH VOTERS: Zohran Mamdani appealed to Jewish New Yorkers who were drawn to his affordability-focused platform and unbothered by or supportive of his views on Israel and Gaza. (The New York Times)

— CUOMO RECALIBRATES: Andrew Cuomo’s revamped campaign is shifting away from his historically vehement defense of Israel. (Bloomberg)

— ICE CRACKDOWN: Most immigrants arrested in New York City since the Trump administration ramped up its stringent border policies do not have criminal charges or convictions. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

INDIANAPOLIS — Indiana Gov. Mike Braun is noncommittal on calling a special session to mid-decade redistricting despite pressure from the White House, but said the issue could come up when Vice President JD Vance visits the Hoosier state.

Asked whether he would call a special session to redistrict, Braun said “whatever we discuss there, if that topic comes up, is exploratory. So there’s been no commitments made other than that.”

Braun, who is a constitutionally weak governor working with a more powerful legislature, said redistricting “will be a broad conversation with the speaker and president pro tem.”

“Folks raising the most Cain about it are the ones that have gerrymandered their own states, where it looks like maybe the tentacles of an octopus," he told reporters at the Indiana Statehouse, adding: "We’ll see what happens."

Vance’s visit on Thursday comes as President Donald Trump leans heavily on states where Republicans control the legislature and the governor’s seat to redraw congressional maps mid-cycle. That effort has triggered a fierce battle in Texas, where Republicans are hoping to create five new favorable districts — if they can overcome Democrats’ efforts to prevent the legislature from having a quorum.

Republicans currently control seven of the nine seats in Indiana’s congressional delegation, but some Trump allies are hoping the state will draw new maps to squeeze Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan out of his northwest Indiana district.

Trump has said he hopes to gain as many as five additional seats through redistricting beyond the new Texas map. That means more states besides Texas and Ohio — which is legally required to redraw its maps and could net Republicans up to three more favorable seats — may join the redistricting wars.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Republicans were “entitled to five more seats” in Texas, in one of his first public comments on the state’s new proposed congressional map.

Trump had remained quiet on the state’s redrawn map since it was introduced, despite brewing commotion over the Republican partisan gerrymander that prompted dozens of state Democratic lawmakers to flee the state in a last-ditch attempt to block the map’s passage over the weekend.

The map could net Republicans as many as five seats in the state. It has triggered an arms race across the country, with Democratic-controlled states — most notably California — pledging to gerrymander their own maps in response.

“We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats. We have a really good governor, and we have good people in Texas. And I won Texas,” Trump told CNBC’s Squawk Box. “I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats.”

Texas Republicans last week unveiled a new congressional map of the state that, if passed by the state’s legislature, would boost the party’s chances of maintaining control of the House in the 2026 midterms. It came after pressure from the Trump aides to redraw the map, along with the Department of Justice alleging that the previous map could be illegal, even as Trump makes it clear the redraw is predominantly driven by politics.

Scores of Democratic state lawmakers left the state in an attempt to stop Republicans from implementing the map by denying the legislature a quorum. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has repeatedly vowed to expel the absent Democrats from the legislature if they fail to return to the state for its ongoing special session.

Trump on Tuesday bashed the departed Democrats, some of whom fled to Illinois on Sunday, calling the situation “terrible.”

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

With help from Amira McKee

YOU STARTED IT: She wants to be the gerrymanderer-in-chief.

Gov. Kathy Hochul hosted six lawmakers from Texas at the Capitol this morning — and while gracing them with some good ol’ northern hospitality, she also effectively told the Empire State’s good government groups to go to hell.

The Texas Democrats were fleeing the Lone Star State to prevent their state Legislature from having the quorum necessary to push forward a Trump-led redistricting measure, which would give the state five more Republican congressional seats.

The visit to Hochul’s backyard showcased how the governor is playing a key role in escalating the political arms race to redraw congressional maps around the country, POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney reports.

After greeting the Texans in Albany with a breakfast of eggs, bacon and sausage, Hochul held a press conference with them in the Capitol’s Red Room — where she slammed New York’s own redistricting process for not being partisan enough and embraced the full-fledged gerrymandering of New York’s congressional districts.

“I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back,” Hochul said, when asked if she would change or disband New York’s independent redistricting committee. “Republicans take over the Legislature? They can have at it. But until then, we're in charge.”

“All due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process,” she added.

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie agreed: “It's very difficult to say play fair when your opponents are playing dirty and using every toolbox to undermine democracy.”

Hochul wants legislators to start a process of approving a constitutional amendment to let New York make changes to its own congressional lines. But that’s a lengthy process and wouldn’t impact the maps any sooner than the 2028 election — even if the amendment is approved by voters and the new lines aren’t challenged in court.

“We’re sick and tired of being pushed around when other states don’t have the same aspirations that we always have,” the governor said.

Mayoral candidate and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who authored the 2012 state constitutional language now restricting New York Democrats’ abilities to quickly respond to Texas, wasn’t totally on board with Hochul’s hardball efforts.

"I think what Texas is doing is grossly political and just gross gerrymandering and is one of the reasons why the public turns off on government,” Cuomo said at an unrelated campaign event in Manhattan. “It could also have a dramatic effect if it goes beyond Texas. But to pass it, to do it here, you would need a couple of years. ... So my guess is, by the time you could actually do it, it would be irrelevant."

The six Texas House Democrats — whose colleagues also fled to Illinois on Sunday — said today they were just stopping through Albany and planned to continue on their journey to meet with Democratic governors from other states.

They wouldn’t say where they’re headed next and refused to reveal if they plan to remain outside the Lone Star State until Aug. 19, when Texas’ special session concludes. If they don’t, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has the power to call another special session immediately after the current one to bring up the redistricting bill again.

"To run to states like New York and Illinois to protest redistricting, it's kind of like running to Wisconsin to protest cheese. It's just kind of outrageous,” Abbott said in response to the lawmakers Albany visit today. “New York and Illinois are two hallmark states that have already done redistricting to eliminate Republicans.”

Hochul’s naked embrace of Democratic gerrymandering in response to the Texas GOP’s own effort was condemned by New York Republicans in the state Legislature and Congress, including Rep. Elise Stefanik, who’s considering challenging Hochul for governor.

“The Worst Governor in America needs to be reminded that she conveniently forgot to tell the unlawful out-of-state radical Democrats at today's desperate press conference that she lost not once, but TWICE in her effort to illegally draw gerrymandered lines in New York to rig our Congressional elections and suppress the will of the voters,” Stefanik said on X.

John Kaehny, executive director of the good government group Reinvent Albany, described Hochul’s move as trying to justify destroying the village to save it — which will really just undermine democracy.

“The state of New York motto is Excelsior, which means, ‘Ever Upwards,’ not, ‘We’ll Race Texas to The Bottom and Disenfranchise Large Swaths of New York Voters,’” he told Playbook. “Gerrymandering is without a doubt one of the most devastating ways to essentially nullify the votes of huge numbers of people, and that's the opposite of democracy.” — Jason Beeferman

‘THE SAFEST BIG CITY’: Mayor Eric Adams touted falling crime rates today in Brooklyn, dubbing last month “the safest July in our subway system in recorded history.”

Adams, a retired NYPD captain, won his 2021 campaign in large part on the promise that he would make a pandemic-ravaged New York City safer. Now, as New Yorkers’ public safety insecurities endure, he’s returning to crime statistics — in the face of his abysmal performance in recent polls.

“New York City is grieving this week after the tragic loss of four innocent lives — including an NYPD officer — in a senseless shooting in Midtown,” Adams said in a statement. “As we mourn, we must also find ways to turn our pain into purpose; it's the least we can do to honor the victims. While this incident will forever be a stain on our city, it happened against the backdrop of a larger, more hopeful picture — one where the brave men and women of the NYPD continue to drive down crime.”

The first seven months of 2025 saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history, according to July crime statistics put out by the NYPD today. The department’s seven major crime categories, including murder and robbery, are down 5.6 percent overall from last year.

While Adams has blamed media coverage for lingering fears over public safety, a POLITICO analysis found overall crime in the city is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

The mayor and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch told reporters today that they attribute their progress, in part, to the administration’s focus on illegal gun removal and gang takedowns.

Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor who leads the field in recent polls, has offered different policy prescriptions from the mayor when it comes to policing. Their divergent views have become a centerpiece in the race in the aftermath of a mass shooting that killed an NYPD officer in Midtown Manhattan last week. Mamdani has distanced himself from his previous calls to “defund the police,” but his future with the nation’s largest police force remains a delicate matter.

Adams took aim at Mamdani today for his calls to disband the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, the controversial unit responsible for policing protests and responding to major public disturbances — including the mass shooting.

“We just have a philosophical difference in the principles of public safety, and there's a reason crime is down and jobs are up, and idealism collides with realism when you are saving the lives of people,” Adams said at his press conference on the stats. — Amira McKee

IF YOU PAY THEM, THEY WILL COME: Cuomo unveiled a public safety proposal of his own today — it’s designed to retain and attract more NYPD recruits.

The former governor proposed offering new recruits a $15,000 signing bonus and then layering in additional retention bonuses throughout their tenure. He floated the idea of recruiting retired cops to rejoin the force, allowing them to collect their pension and a salary. Cuomo also proposed a city-run scholarship fund that would offer a full ride to officers without a bachelor’s degree.

Sweetening the pay — which would cost $250 million over five years — and offering other perks would help the city hire 5,000 more police officers, Cuomo said.

“It’s time to build a new New York City based on what we are dealing with and what we’ve learned,” Cuomo said.

The former governor also devoted a significant portion of his press briefing to attacking Mamdani and poring over the state legislator’s past support for defunding the police. Mamdani has said during his campaign he would maintain funding for the department while creating a new Department of Community Safety that would handle tasks like mental health emergencies.

“Either you were telling the truth then or you’re telling the truth now, but you cannot justify those two statements,” Cuomo said.

The former governor further separated himself from the 33-year-old democratic socialist by proposing to expand the Strategic Response Group, a controversial NYPD unit, and continuing to have it handle protests. Mamdani has proposed disbanding the unit and creating a new one designed to respond to emergencies like the Midtown mass shooting last week. — Joe Anuta

ON YOUR RIGHT: Adams is planning to do a fireside chat next week with the conservative Manhattan Institute as he seeks support on the right for his longshot independent reelection effort.

“Governing in NYC,” a conversation between Adams and Manhattan Institute President Reihan Salam, is set for Aug. 14 at the Hilton Midtown. The prominent think tank welcomed Adams’ 2021 election as a change from the de Blasio years. But even as the institute’s scholars have written extensively about the mayor — both positively and negatively — Adams has largely kept his distance from his conservative backers.

The institute has been an intellectual force behind attacks on DEI initiatives and gender identity protections.

Adams is also mending fences with an old friend on the right, the Trump-friendly radio host Sid Rosenberg, the Daily News reported Friday.

We’ll be watching to see if newly minted Manhattan Institute fellow Danielle Sassoon shows up, after she resigned as acting U.S. attorney in Manhattan, rather than comply with the Department of Justice’s order to drop the corruption case against Adams. — Jeff Coltin

— STATEN ISLAND 4 MAMDANI: Democratic leaders in New York City’s most conservative borough are backing Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo. (New York Post)

— NY POST TAKES LA: The New York Post will launch a new daily newspaper in Los Angeles called "The California Post" in early 2026. (Axios)

— ‘BASIC DECENCY’: Hochul responded to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz after he criticized her for wearing a head covering to the funeral of a slain Muslim NYPD officer. (New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Radio host Charlamagne tha God fired back at President Donald Trump, accusing the president of pushing authoritarian tactics after Trump called the radio host a “dope” in a recent social media post.

On Monday’s episode of his radio show "The Breakfast Club," Charlamagne said Trump also failed to deliver on key campaign promises and used his show to dissect the president’s Truth Social post point by point.

“Listen, my fellow Americans, we are in a strange time right now, a time we have never seen because authoritarian strategy is being used against anyone who speaks out against this administration,” Charlamagne, whose given name is Lenard McKelvey, said.

Charlamagne drew the ire of Trump after he joined Fox News’ "My View with Lara Trump," the president’s daughter-in-law. Charlamagne said under the new administration “the least of us are still being impacted the worst.” He also said the ongoing controversy around the release of information regarding the death of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein is driving a wedge between the GOP and its supporters.

Soon after, the president responded by calling Charlamagne a “racist sleazebag,” a criticism Charlamagne defended against on Monday.

“He called me a racist. I didn't mention race, not one time on Lara Trump. I didn't bring up the fact that President Trump issued an executive order directing oversight of institutions like the Smithsonian to remove or suppress narratives about systemic racism and Black history,” Charlamagne said, referring to an executive order earlier this year demanding the Smithsonian remove exhibits that divided Americans "based on race."

Charlamagne added that he was “just talking to your base” and letting voters know Trump hasn’t kept the promises he made on the campaign trail.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Charlamagne also accused Trump of making the economy “worse” before criticizing the president's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, after the latest monthly jobs report came in well under expectations.

“It's actually hilarious to see you upset about the high unemployment rates when you let Elon Musk take a chainsaw to the federal government and fire a bunch of government workers earlier this year. You did that, President Trump, and now you're doing exactly what the Biden administration did, trying to convince America the economy is all good when it's not,” he said.

Still, Charlamagne said that he is actually “rooting” for Trump.

“President Trump, don't worry about Lenard, okay, don't worry about Charlamagne tha God. I know something I said hit a nerve and rattled you a little bit, but I don't want you rattled,” Charlamagne said. “I want you to end wars, okay? I want you to keep the border secure. I want you to have the economy booming, okay? I want all these things to be true. I am an American. I don't care who's in the White House. I want America to succeed. But I need you focused, and right now you’re not focused.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had a message Sunday for the dozens of Democratic legislators who fled the state to derail a mega-partisan gerrymander: “This truancy ends now.”

But Abbott’s options to compel those Democrats — whose departure to Illinois and other states is preventing the state Legislature from conducting any business — to return and vote are more constrained and legally uncertain than he let on. And they may take significant time to resolve in court.

Abbott and other Texas Republicans face a hard deadline as they are preparing to adopt maps that could net the GOP five seats in the U.S. House, potentially cementing the party’s majority in Congress. Maps need to be completed before the end of the year so that election officials can prepare for the state's March 3 primaries. The move has also prompted retaliation threats by Democratic governors in other states and roiled expectations for the 2026 elections, when Democrats hope to take the House and act as a check on President Donald Trump.

Here’s a look at the central questions as Abbott’s standoff with Texas House Democrats deepens into a monumental political and legal brawl.

Why did Texas Democrats leave the state?

Texas’ constitution requires two-thirds of the state’s 150 House members to be present to conduct business. That gives the 62-member House Democratic minority a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option to grind the Capitol's business to a halt even if they would be outnumbered on an up-or-down vote.

By absconding from Austin — and the state altogether — Democrats ensured that the Legislature lacked a quorum to convene for a special session called by Abbott to address redistricting. There is some recent history on this: Democrats mounted a similar effort to “break quorum” in 2021 in protest of election-related legislation. The effort ended after Democrats gradually trickled back into the state, amid a similar flurry of arrest threats and lawsuits.

Importantly, breaking quorum is not a crime. However, if the absentee Democratic lawmakers remained in Texas, Abbott could order state troopers to haul them to the Capitol. That’s why they fled for the friendlier confines of Illinois and other blue states, where Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and other allies have vowed to shelter them from Texas’ demands to bring them back.

What are Abbott’s legal options?

Federal laws allow states to demand the return, or “extradition,” of criminal fugitives from other states. But because breaking quorum is not illegal, Abbott can’t seek help from the courts to compel the Democrats’ return.

Instead, Abbott threatened to take another action against the absentee lawmakers: Ask Texas courts to remove them from office altogether. State law permits a Texas district court to determine whether a public official has “abandoned” his or her office, declaring it vacant — enabling the governor to set new elections to fill the empty seats.

“Come and take it,” dared state Rep. Gene Wu, the Texas House Democratic Caucus leader, in an appearance Monday morning on CNN. Wu declared Abbott’s threat to be “all bluster.”

The governor’s threat is rooted in a nonbinding legal opinion issued in 2021 by Attorney General Ken Paxton, amid the last attempt by Democrats to break quorum. Paxton, notably, took no position on whether breaking quorum is constitutional.

The republican AG also declined to say whether fleeing Democrats could or should be removed from office. Rather, he called it a “fact question for a court” that he said was beyond the scope of his office to decide. He noted instead that he could file what are known as “quo warranto actions” in court, asking a judge to determine whether the missing lawmakers had officially vacated their seats.

How would a judge make that call? Paxton said he wasn’t certain.

“We find no constitutional provision or statute establishing an exhaustive list for why a vacancy occurs or the grounds under which an officer may be judicially removed from office,” he wrote.

How long could it take Abbott to force the Legislature back into session?

This is the most uncertain aspect of Abbott’s gambit. Paxton’s office would need to file “quo warranto” actions in various judicial districts for more than 50 fleeing lawmakers. Judges may take up these cases on different timelines and reach different conclusions, requiring appeals that could wind their way to the Texas Supreme Court.

Paxton acknowledged in an interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that the timeline would be problematic.

“The challenge is that [it] wouldn't necessarily be an immediate answer, right?” he said. “We'd have to go through the court process, and we'd have to file … in districts that are not friendly to Republicans,” Paxton said. “So it's a challenge because every, every district would be different. We'd have to go sue in every legislator’s home district to try to execute on that idea."

And even if Abbott and Paxton win a clean sweep in removing the Democrats from office, it would then require a time-intensive process of calling special elections to fill the vacancies — and guaranteeing that the winners of those elections also remain in the state as well.

That timing matters when the GOP-led redistricting plan is on a fixed timeline: A new map must be adopted by early December in order to be in place for the 2026 midterm cycle. That would require Democrats to remain out of state for about four months while they accumulate $500-per-day civil fines. The current special Legislative session is slated to end on Aug. 19, but Abbott could call another one.

Could the Democrats be charged with crimes?

Abbott’s letter, though sharply critical, stopped short of actually accusing Democrats of breaking the law. Rather, he suggested that if outsiders are helping them fundraise to cover their fines, they might run afoul of bribery laws.

“It would be bribery if any lawmaker took money to perform or to refuse to perform an act in the legislature,” Abbott said in a Fox News interview Monday. “And the reports are these legislators have both sought money and offered money to skip the vote, to leave the legislature, to take a legislative act."

If Texas prosecutors in fact level any such charges, then Abbott’s authority to return them grows stronger. He could then ask courts in Texas and Illinois to seek the return of the missing lawmakers.

“I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons,” he said in his Sunday statement.

Liz Crampton contributed reporting.

Rep. Nancy Mace on Monday officially launched her bid for governor of South Carolina, joining a competitive GOP primary to follow term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.

“She’s a fighter, I know about that,” President Donald Trump said in a clip added to her campaign launch video.

Mace (R-S.C.), who has branded herself as a protector of women’s rights, will face Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, state Attorney General Alan Wilson and Rep. Ralph Norman in the primary.

New York Rep. Ritchie Torres — one of the Democratic Party’s most ardent Zionists — has begun questioning Israel as recent images of starving Palestinian children shock leaders across the world.

Torres’ shift is slight and nuanced. Yet coming from such a vocal defender of Israel, it signifies how moderate Democrats are backing away from the unqualified support for the Jewish state that’s underscored the party for decades. And it comes as countries around the globe are reacting in horror at the famine gripping the region and reports of thousands of children dying of starvation as the Israeli military continues its offensive following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

“All parties, including the U.S. and Israel, have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to ease the hardship and hunger that’s taken hold in the Gaza Strip,” Torres said in an interview last week.

He insisted his longheld defense of Israel still stands. “I feel it’s possible to be an unapologetic Zionist while at the same time recognizing there’s a crisis in Gaza and recognizing the war has poorly defined strategic objectives,” he said.

Torres is not alone in his remarks.

Throughout the country, moderate Democrats, who have long resisted pressure to reject Zionism on their left flank, are increasingly speaking out against Israel’s actions in Gaza as they react to anger among constituents ahead of the midterms next year. It’s a shift in attitude percolating from the halls of Congress to governor’s mansions. How Democrats speak about Israel is bound to be a litmus test in battleground Democratic primaries next year as the party fights to retake control of the House and pick up several Senate seats.

In recent days, a majority of Democratic senators voted for a resolution to bar the sale of assault rifles to Israeli police, a marked change in the party since the start of the military conflict. Their unprecedented rebuke comes as polling shows slipping support for Israel among Democratic voters, signaling the prolonged war has potentially caused permanent damage to the country’s relationship with the Democratic Party. And on Sunday, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said “what's happening now isn't working.”

It’s a dynamic that’s also emerging on the right, as the most isolationist voices in MAGA are more forcefully condemning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

“The facts on the ground are that militarily, they have significant tactical advantages and are sufficient enough to be able to effectively deliver food. So the question arises, why can't you get food in there and health care services and basically follow humanitarian laws,” said Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, who joined 11 new Democrats in voting for the resolution from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) after opposing two versions only supported by a handful of progressives.

Another resolution to block the sale of heavy-grade munitions earned the support of 24 Democrats, though it failed. All Republicans opposed both resolutions brought to the floor Wednesday – but Sanders hinted GOP support may come as public opinion moves further against Netanyahu

“You're going to see fairly soon, a number of Republicans beginning to understand that their constituents don't want taxpayer dollars to go to an Israeli government starving children,” Sanders said.

In the interview, Torres said “all parties, including the U.S. and Israel, have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to ease the hardship and hunger that’s taken hold in the Gaza Strip.”

Torres has also tried to keep attention on the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. “The world’s silence about the deliberate starvation of Israeli hostages—at the hands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad — is as deafening as its hypocrisy,” he posted on X on Saturday. “Expect the images of emaciated Israeli bodies, starved in captivity, to appear nowhere in the pages of most major American newspapers.”

Pro-Israel donors and operatives defended Torres, with three people expressing appreciation for his continued support for Israel, while one person — who was not authorized to speak on the record — voiced concern with the frequency of his messages on social media.

“It’s precisely because Congressman Torres has been so proactive about calling out antisemitism that masquerades as antizionism that when he has constructive advice about Israel it’s listened to in a way that a statement from the member of congress who reps an adjacent district isn’t,” Stu Loeser — a New York-based consultant who represents Mike Bloomberg and a host of pro-Israel donors — said in reference to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene became the first Republican in Congress to describe the situation in Gaza, where more than 60,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, a “genocide.” Prominent MAGA media figure Tucker Carlson hosted retired Green Beret Lt. Col. Tony Aguilar, who said he witnessed war crimes while working at Gaza food sites, on his show last week.

And even President Donald Trump, who has closely aligned himself with Netanyahu, implied that Israel bore primary responsibility for the situation in Gaza. A few days later, he reversed course, calling for Hamas to surrender and release hostages – deeming it “the fastest way” to end the humanitarian crisis.

“Everybody, left, right and center should react viscerally against starvation imposed by another government,” said Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, a Democrat. “Whatever one's views about this war, this is beyond the pale and unacceptable, and it does nothing to make Israel safe, or Israelis safe, or Jews safe.

Hardline Israel supporter Sen. John Fetterman said Thursday he viewed the resolutions – which he opposed – as his fellow Democrats blaming Israel for the circumstances, while he blamed on Hamas and Iran. “And that explains my vote, and my ongoing support. And that's not going to change,” he said. The Pennsylvania Democrat said he’s seen the photos of starving children circulating online, but that, “no one ever declared that it was an actual famine, to be clear.”

Some former Biden administration officials argue Netanyahu’s actions, rather than the political winds, are driving this change. They blame Netanyahu for hurting Israel’s credibility with Democrats in the United States given his aggressive military action. Former President Joe Biden, a self-described Zionist, repeatedly called for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, but didn’t heed calls from the left for an arms embargo.

“Yes, the political incentives for Democrats are shifting, but even more powerful for many Democrats is the recognition that a blank check approach to Israel, especially with this Israeli government, is fundamentally in contravention to our interests and values,” said Ned Price, who served as State Department spokesperson and deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during the Biden administration. “Bibi's prosecution of this war has, I think, made this shift in many ways irreversible.”

A former Biden administration official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the political stakes, said a majority of Democratic senators voting to block weapons sales to Israel was unimaginable “even a few months ago” and speaks to "how badly Netanyahu has played this." But the official cautioned this crisis is not as politically charged as was the Iraq War for many Democratic voters.

A Gallup poll released this week found approval of Israel’s military actions in Gaza had dropped to 8 percent among Democrats, the lowest rating to date. In contrast, 71 percent of Republicans said they approve of Israel’s military force in Gaza, up from 66 percent in September.

Changing public opinion on Gaza is most striking in New York, where Democratic primary voters nominated Zohran Mamdani for mayor despite millions of dollars spent attacking him for his anti-Israel posture in a heavily Jewish city. A vast majority believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Torres noted that “if there is an erosion of support for Israel in the United States, that’s not something the Israeli government should take lightly.”

Chris Coffey, a New York-based consultant and longtime Torres ally said the deepening split between the left and moderate factions of the Democratic party can be attributed to images of starving children, and criticism of Israel’s military action “was a minority view now feels like the majority view in the Democratic party.”

“When (people like) Richie Torres, who is arguably the most pro-Israel Democrat in the country and certainly in New York, are asking tough questions then it’s going to cause there to be some reflection and some ripples,” he said. “It’s going to force people to ask tough questions.”

Eric Bazail-Eimil and Joe Gould contributed reporting.

Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington — but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.

Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that’s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.

“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”

Still, as Democrats go on offense during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They've tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.

Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn’t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they’re confident it’ll come by early 2026.

“There's a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisor. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”

And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party’s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”

Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.

“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”

Here’s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.

The polls don't yet look good for Democrats

Even as Trump's approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats’ projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson Collegeand YouGovshow that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.

That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans’ shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.

Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats’ monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.

That doesn’t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.

“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”

Redistricting could bite into Democrats' opportunities

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.

Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024.

“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we're ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”

Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats’ ability to retake the chamber.

Some Democratic governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it’s unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.

Tanden says she’s optimistic California can counter Texas’s gerrymandering by 2026. “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”

Democrats are facing down messy primaries

House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.

Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel's war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election.

Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary "asleep at the wheel" Democrats.

Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party’s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s prepared to intervene in primaries that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.

But Democratic strategists who spoke with POLITICO insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.

Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats,” he said.

Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren’t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren’t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”

Democratic fundraising is still lackluster

Republicans have generally raised more money than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.

In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 millionin the first six months of the year — about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival, House Majority PAC.

It’s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it’s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.

Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.

For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a POLITICO analysis.

Tanden is hopeful there “will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” and pointed to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records in its first 24 hours.

Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, said money cannot overcome negative optics from GOP policies.

Republicans’ “tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.