With help from Amira McKee

YOU STARTED IT: She wants to be the gerrymanderer-in-chief.

Gov. Kathy Hochul hosted six lawmakers from Texas at the Capitol this morning — and while gracing them with some good ol’ northern hospitality, she also effectively told the Empire State’s good government groups to go to hell.

The Texas Democrats were fleeing the Lone Star State to prevent their state Legislature from having the quorum necessary to push forward a Trump-led redistricting measure, which would give the state five more Republican congressional seats.

The visit to Hochul’s backyard showcased how the governor is playing a key role in escalating the political arms race to redraw congressional maps around the country, POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney reports.

After greeting the Texans in Albany with a breakfast of eggs, bacon and sausage, Hochul held a press conference with them in the Capitol’s Red Room — where she slammed New York’s own redistricting process for not being partisan enough and embraced the full-fledged gerrymandering of New York’s congressional districts.

“I'm tired of fighting this fight with my hand tied behind my back,” Hochul said, when asked if she would change or disband New York’s independent redistricting committee. “Republicans take over the Legislature? They can have at it. But until then, we're in charge.”

“All due respect to the good government groups, politics is a political process,” she added.

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie agreed: “It's very difficult to say play fair when your opponents are playing dirty and using every toolbox to undermine democracy.”

Hochul wants legislators to start a process of approving a constitutional amendment to let New York make changes to its own congressional lines. But that’s a lengthy process and wouldn’t impact the maps any sooner than the 2028 election — even if the amendment is approved by voters and the new lines aren’t challenged in court.

“We’re sick and tired of being pushed around when other states don’t have the same aspirations that we always have,” the governor said.

Mayoral candidate and former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who authored the 2012 state constitutional language now restricting New York Democrats’ abilities to quickly respond to Texas, wasn’t totally on board with Hochul’s hardball efforts.

"I think what Texas is doing is grossly political and just gross gerrymandering and is one of the reasons why the public turns off on government,” Cuomo said at an unrelated campaign event in Manhattan. “It could also have a dramatic effect if it goes beyond Texas. But to pass it, to do it here, you would need a couple of years. ... So my guess is, by the time you could actually do it, it would be irrelevant."

The six Texas House Democrats — whose colleagues also fled to Illinois on Sunday — said today they were just stopping through Albany and planned to continue on their journey to meet with Democratic governors from other states.

They wouldn’t say where they’re headed next and refused to reveal if they plan to remain outside the Lone Star State until Aug. 19, when Texas’ special session concludes. If they don’t, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has the power to call another special session immediately after the current one to bring up the redistricting bill again.

"To run to states like New York and Illinois to protest redistricting, it's kind of like running to Wisconsin to protest cheese. It's just kind of outrageous,” Abbott said in response to the lawmakers Albany visit today. “New York and Illinois are two hallmark states that have already done redistricting to eliminate Republicans.”

Hochul’s naked embrace of Democratic gerrymandering in response to the Texas GOP’s own effort was condemned by New York Republicans in the state Legislature and Congress, including Rep. Elise Stefanik, who’s considering challenging Hochul for governor.

“The Worst Governor in America needs to be reminded that she conveniently forgot to tell the unlawful out-of-state radical Democrats at today's desperate press conference that she lost not once, but TWICE in her effort to illegally draw gerrymandered lines in New York to rig our Congressional elections and suppress the will of the voters,” Stefanik said on X.

John Kaehny, executive director of the good government group Reinvent Albany, described Hochul’s move as trying to justify destroying the village to save it — which will really just undermine democracy.

“The state of New York motto is Excelsior, which means, ‘Ever Upwards,’ not, ‘We’ll Race Texas to The Bottom and Disenfranchise Large Swaths of New York Voters,’” he told Playbook. “Gerrymandering is without a doubt one of the most devastating ways to essentially nullify the votes of huge numbers of people, and that's the opposite of democracy.” — Jason Beeferman

‘THE SAFEST BIG CITY’: Mayor Eric Adams touted falling crime rates today in Brooklyn, dubbing last month “the safest July in our subway system in recorded history.”

Adams, a retired NYPD captain, won his 2021 campaign in large part on the promise that he would make a pandemic-ravaged New York City safer. Now, as New Yorkers’ public safety insecurities endure, he’s returning to crime statistics — in the face of his abysmal performance in recent polls.

“New York City is grieving this week after the tragic loss of four innocent lives — including an NYPD officer — in a senseless shooting in Midtown,” Adams said in a statement. “As we mourn, we must also find ways to turn our pain into purpose; it's the least we can do to honor the victims. While this incident will forever be a stain on our city, it happened against the backdrop of a larger, more hopeful picture — one where the brave men and women of the NYPD continue to drive down crime.”

The first seven months of 2025 saw the fewest shooting incidents and shooting victims in recorded history, according to July crime statistics put out by the NYPD today. The department’s seven major crime categories, including murder and robbery, are down 5.6 percent overall from last year.

While Adams has blamed media coverage for lingering fears over public safety, a POLITICO analysis found overall crime in the city is yet to return to pre-pandemic levels.

The mayor and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch told reporters today that they attribute their progress, in part, to the administration’s focus on illegal gun removal and gang takedowns.

Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic nominee for mayor who leads the field in recent polls, has offered different policy prescriptions from the mayor when it comes to policing. Their divergent views have become a centerpiece in the race in the aftermath of a mass shooting that killed an NYPD officer in Midtown Manhattan last week. Mamdani has distanced himself from his previous calls to “defund the police,” but his future with the nation’s largest police force remains a delicate matter.

Adams took aim at Mamdani today for his calls to disband the NYPD’s Strategic Response Group, the controversial unit responsible for policing protests and responding to major public disturbances — including the mass shooting.

“We just have a philosophical difference in the principles of public safety, and there's a reason crime is down and jobs are up, and idealism collides with realism when you are saving the lives of people,” Adams said at his press conference on the stats. — Amira McKee

IF YOU PAY THEM, THEY WILL COME: Cuomo unveiled a public safety proposal of his own today — it’s designed to retain and attract more NYPD recruits.

The former governor proposed offering new recruits a $15,000 signing bonus and then layering in additional retention bonuses throughout their tenure. He floated the idea of recruiting retired cops to rejoin the force, allowing them to collect their pension and a salary. Cuomo also proposed a city-run scholarship fund that would offer a full ride to officers without a bachelor’s degree.

Sweetening the pay — which would cost $250 million over five years — and offering other perks would help the city hire 5,000 more police officers, Cuomo said.

“It’s time to build a new New York City based on what we are dealing with and what we’ve learned,” Cuomo said.

The former governor also devoted a significant portion of his press briefing to attacking Mamdani and poring over the state legislator’s past support for defunding the police. Mamdani has said during his campaign he would maintain funding for the department while creating a new Department of Community Safety that would handle tasks like mental health emergencies.

“Either you were telling the truth then or you’re telling the truth now, but you cannot justify those two statements,” Cuomo said.

The former governor further separated himself from the 33-year-old democratic socialist by proposing to expand the Strategic Response Group, a controversial NYPD unit, and continuing to have it handle protests. Mamdani has proposed disbanding the unit and creating a new one designed to respond to emergencies like the Midtown mass shooting last week. — Joe Anuta

ON YOUR RIGHT: Adams is planning to do a fireside chat next week with the conservative Manhattan Institute as he seeks support on the right for his longshot independent reelection effort.

“Governing in NYC,” a conversation between Adams and Manhattan Institute President Reihan Salam, is set for Aug. 14 at the Hilton Midtown. The prominent think tank welcomed Adams’ 2021 election as a change from the de Blasio years. But even as the institute’s scholars have written extensively about the mayor — both positively and negatively — Adams has largely kept his distance from his conservative backers.

The institute has been an intellectual force behind attacks on DEI initiatives and gender identity protections.

Adams is also mending fences with an old friend on the right, the Trump-friendly radio host Sid Rosenberg, the Daily News reported Friday.

We’ll be watching to see if newly minted Manhattan Institute fellow Danielle Sassoon shows up, after she resigned as acting U.S. attorney in Manhattan, rather than comply with the Department of Justice’s order to drop the corruption case against Adams. — Jeff Coltin

— STATEN ISLAND 4 MAMDANI: Democratic leaders in New York City’s most conservative borough are backing Zohran Mamdani over Andrew Cuomo. (New York Post)

— NY POST TAKES LA: The New York Post will launch a new daily newspaper in Los Angeles called "The California Post" in early 2026. (Axios)

— ‘BASIC DECENCY’: Hochul responded to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz after he criticized her for wearing a head covering to the funeral of a slain Muslim NYPD officer. (New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Radio host Charlamagne tha God fired back at President Donald Trump, accusing the president of pushing authoritarian tactics after Trump called the radio host a “dope” in a recent social media post.

On Monday’s episode of his radio show "The Breakfast Club," Charlamagne said Trump also failed to deliver on key campaign promises and used his show to dissect the president’s Truth Social post point by point.

“Listen, my fellow Americans, we are in a strange time right now, a time we have never seen because authoritarian strategy is being used against anyone who speaks out against this administration,” Charlamagne, whose given name is Lenard McKelvey, said.

Charlamagne drew the ire of Trump after he joined Fox News’ "My View with Lara Trump," the president’s daughter-in-law. Charlamagne said under the new administration “the least of us are still being impacted the worst.” He also said the ongoing controversy around the release of information regarding the death of disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein is driving a wedge between the GOP and its supporters.

Soon after, the president responded by calling Charlamagne a “racist sleazebag,” a criticism Charlamagne defended against on Monday.

“He called me a racist. I didn't mention race, not one time on Lara Trump. I didn't bring up the fact that President Trump issued an executive order directing oversight of institutions like the Smithsonian to remove or suppress narratives about systemic racism and Black history,” Charlamagne said, referring to an executive order earlier this year demanding the Smithsonian remove exhibits that divided Americans "based on race."

Charlamagne added that he was “just talking to your base” and letting voters know Trump hasn’t kept the promises he made on the campaign trail.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Charlamagne also accused Trump of making the economy “worse” before criticizing the president's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, after the latest monthly jobs report came in well under expectations.

“It's actually hilarious to see you upset about the high unemployment rates when you let Elon Musk take a chainsaw to the federal government and fire a bunch of government workers earlier this year. You did that, President Trump, and now you're doing exactly what the Biden administration did, trying to convince America the economy is all good when it's not,” he said.

Still, Charlamagne said that he is actually “rooting” for Trump.

“President Trump, don't worry about Lenard, okay, don't worry about Charlamagne tha God. I know something I said hit a nerve and rattled you a little bit, but I don't want you rattled,” Charlamagne said. “I want you to end wars, okay? I want you to keep the border secure. I want you to have the economy booming, okay? I want all these things to be true. I am an American. I don't care who's in the White House. I want America to succeed. But I need you focused, and right now you’re not focused.”

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott had a message Sunday for the dozens of Democratic legislators who fled the state to derail a mega-partisan gerrymander: “This truancy ends now.”

But Abbott’s options to compel those Democrats — whose departure to Illinois and other states is preventing the state Legislature from conducting any business — to return and vote are more constrained and legally uncertain than he let on. And they may take significant time to resolve in court.

Abbott and other Texas Republicans face a hard deadline as they are preparing to adopt maps that could net the GOP five seats in the U.S. House, potentially cementing the party’s majority in Congress. Maps need to be completed before the end of the year so that election officials can prepare for the state's March 3 primaries. The move has also prompted retaliation threats by Democratic governors in other states and roiled expectations for the 2026 elections, when Democrats hope to take the House and act as a check on President Donald Trump.

Here’s a look at the central questions as Abbott’s standoff with Texas House Democrats deepens into a monumental political and legal brawl.

Why did Texas Democrats leave the state?

Texas’ constitution requires two-thirds of the state’s 150 House members to be present to conduct business. That gives the 62-member House Democratic minority a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option to grind the Capitol's business to a halt even if they would be outnumbered on an up-or-down vote.

By absconding from Austin — and the state altogether — Democrats ensured that the Legislature lacked a quorum to convene for a special session called by Abbott to address redistricting. There is some recent history on this: Democrats mounted a similar effort to “break quorum” in 2021 in protest of election-related legislation. The effort ended after Democrats gradually trickled back into the state, amid a similar flurry of arrest threats and lawsuits.

Importantly, breaking quorum is not a crime. However, if the absentee Democratic lawmakers remained in Texas, Abbott could order state troopers to haul them to the Capitol. That’s why they fled for the friendlier confines of Illinois and other blue states, where Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker and other allies have vowed to shelter them from Texas’ demands to bring them back.

What are Abbott’s legal options?

Federal laws allow states to demand the return, or “extradition,” of criminal fugitives from other states. But because breaking quorum is not illegal, Abbott can’t seek help from the courts to compel the Democrats’ return.

Instead, Abbott threatened to take another action against the absentee lawmakers: Ask Texas courts to remove them from office altogether. State law permits a Texas district court to determine whether a public official has “abandoned” his or her office, declaring it vacant — enabling the governor to set new elections to fill the empty seats.

“Come and take it,” dared state Rep. Gene Wu, the Texas House Democratic Caucus leader, in an appearance Monday morning on CNN. Wu declared Abbott’s threat to be “all bluster.”

The governor’s threat is rooted in a nonbinding legal opinion issued in 2021 by Attorney General Ken Paxton, amid the last attempt by Democrats to break quorum. Paxton, notably, took no position on whether breaking quorum is constitutional.

The republican AG also declined to say whether fleeing Democrats could or should be removed from office. Rather, he called it a “fact question for a court” that he said was beyond the scope of his office to decide. He noted instead that he could file what are known as “quo warranto actions” in court, asking a judge to determine whether the missing lawmakers had officially vacated their seats.

How would a judge make that call? Paxton said he wasn’t certain.

“We find no constitutional provision or statute establishing an exhaustive list for why a vacancy occurs or the grounds under which an officer may be judicially removed from office,” he wrote.

How long could it take Abbott to force the Legislature back into session?

This is the most uncertain aspect of Abbott’s gambit. Paxton’s office would need to file “quo warranto” actions in various judicial districts for more than 50 fleeing lawmakers. Judges may take up these cases on different timelines and reach different conclusions, requiring appeals that could wind their way to the Texas Supreme Court.

Paxton acknowledged in an interview with conservative podcaster Benny Johnson that the timeline would be problematic.

“The challenge is that [it] wouldn't necessarily be an immediate answer, right?” he said. “We'd have to go through the court process, and we'd have to file … in districts that are not friendly to Republicans,” Paxton said. “So it's a challenge because every, every district would be different. We'd have to go sue in every legislator’s home district to try to execute on that idea."

And even if Abbott and Paxton win a clean sweep in removing the Democrats from office, it would then require a time-intensive process of calling special elections to fill the vacancies — and guaranteeing that the winners of those elections also remain in the state as well.

That timing matters when the GOP-led redistricting plan is on a fixed timeline: A new map must be adopted by early December in order to be in place for the 2026 midterm cycle. That would require Democrats to remain out of state for about four months while they accumulate $500-per-day civil fines. The current special Legislative session is slated to end on Aug. 19, but Abbott could call another one.

Could the Democrats be charged with crimes?

Abbott’s letter, though sharply critical, stopped short of actually accusing Democrats of breaking the law. Rather, he suggested that if outsiders are helping them fundraise to cover their fines, they might run afoul of bribery laws.

“It would be bribery if any lawmaker took money to perform or to refuse to perform an act in the legislature,” Abbott said in a Fox News interview Monday. “And the reports are these legislators have both sought money and offered money to skip the vote, to leave the legislature, to take a legislative act."

If Texas prosecutors in fact level any such charges, then Abbott’s authority to return them grows stronger. He could then ask courts in Texas and Illinois to seek the return of the missing lawmakers.

“I will use my full extradition authority to demand the return to Texas of any potential out-of-state felons,” he said in his Sunday statement.

Liz Crampton contributed reporting.

Rep. Nancy Mace on Monday officially launched her bid for governor of South Carolina, joining a competitive GOP primary to follow term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster.

“She’s a fighter, I know about that,” President Donald Trump said in a clip added to her campaign launch video.

Mace (R-S.C.), who has branded herself as a protector of women’s rights, will face Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, state Attorney General Alan Wilson and Rep. Ralph Norman in the primary.

New York Rep. Ritchie Torres — one of the Democratic Party’s most ardent Zionists — has begun questioning Israel as recent images of starving Palestinian children shock leaders across the world.

Torres’ shift is slight and nuanced. Yet coming from such a vocal defender of Israel, it signifies how moderate Democrats are backing away from the unqualified support for the Jewish state that’s underscored the party for decades. And it comes as countries around the globe are reacting in horror at the famine gripping the region and reports of thousands of children dying of starvation as the Israeli military continues its offensive following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

“All parties, including the U.S. and Israel, have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to ease the hardship and hunger that’s taken hold in the Gaza Strip,” Torres said in an interview last week.

He insisted his longheld defense of Israel still stands. “I feel it’s possible to be an unapologetic Zionist while at the same time recognizing there’s a crisis in Gaza and recognizing the war has poorly defined strategic objectives,” he said.

Torres is not alone in his remarks.

Throughout the country, moderate Democrats, who have long resisted pressure to reject Zionism on their left flank, are increasingly speaking out against Israel’s actions in Gaza as they react to anger among constituents ahead of the midterms next year. It’s a shift in attitude percolating from the halls of Congress to governor’s mansions. How Democrats speak about Israel is bound to be a litmus test in battleground Democratic primaries next year as the party fights to retake control of the House and pick up several Senate seats.

In recent days, a majority of Democratic senators voted for a resolution to bar the sale of assault rifles to Israeli police, a marked change in the party since the start of the military conflict. Their unprecedented rebuke comes as polling shows slipping support for Israel among Democratic voters, signaling the prolonged war has potentially caused permanent damage to the country’s relationship with the Democratic Party. And on Sunday, Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said “what's happening now isn't working.”

It’s a dynamic that’s also emerging on the right, as the most isolationist voices in MAGA are more forcefully condemning Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the escalating humanitarian crisis in the region.

“The facts on the ground are that militarily, they have significant tactical advantages and are sufficient enough to be able to effectively deliver food. So the question arises, why can't you get food in there and health care services and basically follow humanitarian laws,” said Rhode Island Sen. Jack Reed, who joined 11 new Democrats in voting for the resolution from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) after opposing two versions only supported by a handful of progressives.

Another resolution to block the sale of heavy-grade munitions earned the support of 24 Democrats, though it failed. All Republicans opposed both resolutions brought to the floor Wednesday – but Sanders hinted GOP support may come as public opinion moves further against Netanyahu

“You're going to see fairly soon, a number of Republicans beginning to understand that their constituents don't want taxpayer dollars to go to an Israeli government starving children,” Sanders said.

In the interview, Torres said “all parties, including the U.S. and Israel, have a moral obligation to do everything in our power to ease the hardship and hunger that’s taken hold in the Gaza Strip.”

Torres has also tried to keep attention on the Israeli hostages held by Hamas. “The world’s silence about the deliberate starvation of Israeli hostages—at the hands of Hamas and Islamic Jihad — is as deafening as its hypocrisy,” he posted on X on Saturday. “Expect the images of emaciated Israeli bodies, starved in captivity, to appear nowhere in the pages of most major American newspapers.”

Pro-Israel donors and operatives defended Torres, with three people expressing appreciation for his continued support for Israel, while one person — who was not authorized to speak on the record — voiced concern with the frequency of his messages on social media.

“It’s precisely because Congressman Torres has been so proactive about calling out antisemitism that masquerades as antizionism that when he has constructive advice about Israel it’s listened to in a way that a statement from the member of congress who reps an adjacent district isn’t,” Stu Loeser — a New York-based consultant who represents Mike Bloomberg and a host of pro-Israel donors — said in reference to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

On the GOP side, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene became the first Republican in Congress to describe the situation in Gaza, where more than 60,000 Palestinians have died in the conflict, a “genocide.” Prominent MAGA media figure Tucker Carlson hosted retired Green Beret Lt. Col. Tony Aguilar, who said he witnessed war crimes while working at Gaza food sites, on his show last week.

And even President Donald Trump, who has closely aligned himself with Netanyahu, implied that Israel bore primary responsibility for the situation in Gaza. A few days later, he reversed course, calling for Hamas to surrender and release hostages – deeming it “the fastest way” to end the humanitarian crisis.

“Everybody, left, right and center should react viscerally against starvation imposed by another government,” said Hawaii Sen. Brian Schatz, a Democrat. “Whatever one's views about this war, this is beyond the pale and unacceptable, and it does nothing to make Israel safe, or Israelis safe, or Jews safe.

Hardline Israel supporter Sen. John Fetterman said Thursday he viewed the resolutions – which he opposed – as his fellow Democrats blaming Israel for the circumstances, while he blamed on Hamas and Iran. “And that explains my vote, and my ongoing support. And that's not going to change,” he said. The Pennsylvania Democrat said he’s seen the photos of starving children circulating online, but that, “no one ever declared that it was an actual famine, to be clear.”

Some former Biden administration officials argue Netanyahu’s actions, rather than the political winds, are driving this change. They blame Netanyahu for hurting Israel’s credibility with Democrats in the United States given his aggressive military action. Former President Joe Biden, a self-described Zionist, repeatedly called for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestine, but didn’t heed calls from the left for an arms embargo.

“Yes, the political incentives for Democrats are shifting, but even more powerful for many Democrats is the recognition that a blank check approach to Israel, especially with this Israeli government, is fundamentally in contravention to our interests and values,” said Ned Price, who served as State Department spokesperson and deputy to the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations during the Biden administration. “Bibi's prosecution of this war has, I think, made this shift in many ways irreversible.”

A former Biden administration official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the political stakes, said a majority of Democratic senators voting to block weapons sales to Israel was unimaginable “even a few months ago” and speaks to "how badly Netanyahu has played this." But the official cautioned this crisis is not as politically charged as was the Iraq War for many Democratic voters.

A Gallup poll released this week found approval of Israel’s military actions in Gaza had dropped to 8 percent among Democrats, the lowest rating to date. In contrast, 71 percent of Republicans said they approve of Israel’s military force in Gaza, up from 66 percent in September.

Changing public opinion on Gaza is most striking in New York, where Democratic primary voters nominated Zohran Mamdani for mayor despite millions of dollars spent attacking him for his anti-Israel posture in a heavily Jewish city. A vast majority believe Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

Torres noted that “if there is an erosion of support for Israel in the United States, that’s not something the Israeli government should take lightly.”

Chris Coffey, a New York-based consultant and longtime Torres ally said the deepening split between the left and moderate factions of the Democratic party can be attributed to images of starving children, and criticism of Israel’s military action “was a minority view now feels like the majority view in the Democratic party.”

“When (people like) Richie Torres, who is arguably the most pro-Israel Democrat in the country and certainly in New York, are asking tough questions then it’s going to cause there to be some reflection and some ripples,” he said. “It’s going to force people to ask tough questions.”

Eric Bazail-Eimil and Joe Gould contributed reporting.

Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington — but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.

Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that’s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.

“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”

Still, as Democrats go on offense during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They've tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.

Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn’t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they’re confident it’ll come by early 2026.

“There's a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisor. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”

And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party’s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”

Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.

“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”

Here’s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.

The polls don't yet look good for Democrats

Even as Trump's approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats’ projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson Collegeand YouGovshow that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.

That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans’ shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.

Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats’ monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.

That doesn’t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.

“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”

Redistricting could bite into Democrats' opportunities

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.

Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024.

“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we're ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”

Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats’ ability to retake the chamber.

Some Democratic governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it’s unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.

Tanden says she’s optimistic California can counter Texas’s gerrymandering by 2026. “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”

Democrats are facing down messy primaries

House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.

Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel's war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election.

Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary "asleep at the wheel" Democrats.

Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party’s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s prepared to intervene in primaries that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.

But Democratic strategists who spoke with POLITICO insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.

Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats,” he said.

Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren’t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren’t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”

Democratic fundraising is still lackluster

Republicans have generally raised more money than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.

In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 millionin the first six months of the year — about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival, House Majority PAC.

It’s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it’s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.

Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.

For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a POLITICO analysis.

Tanden is hopeful there “will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” and pointed to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records in its first 24 hours.

Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, said money cannot overcome negative optics from GOP policies.

Republicans’ “tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.