Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington — but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.

Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that’s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.

“I don’t see a blue wave,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. “It’s more like a blue trickle.”

Still, as Democrats go on offense during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies enacted under a Republican trifecta. They've tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.

Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn’t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they’re confident it’ll come by early 2026.

“There's a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,” said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden’s domestic policy advisor. “I think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.”

And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party’s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: “It’s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.”

Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.

“Vulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “They’re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they’re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party’s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they’ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.”

Here’s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.

The polls don't yet look good for Democrats

Even as Trump's approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats’ projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson Collegeand YouGovshow that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.

That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans’ shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.

Around this time in 2017 — ahead of Democrats’ monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats — Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.

That doesn’t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.

“If we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,” Taglia said. “They’re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points … Then you’re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.”

Redistricting could bite into Democrats' opportunities

Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats’ plans to reclaim the House.

Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas who swung right in 2024.

“Donald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we're ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top House super PAC. “We’re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.”

Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats’ ability to retake the chamber.

Some Democratic governors, including California’s Gavin Newsom and New York’s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it’s unclear how feasible these efforts will be because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.

Tanden says she’s optimistic California can counter Texas’s gerrymandering by 2026. “If someone was like, ‘while Trump is president we’re going to get rid of the commission,’ people would be down with that.”

Democrats are facing down messy primaries

House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.

Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel's war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources that could be used in the general election.

Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary "asleep at the wheel" Democrats.

Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party’s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.

Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he’s prepared to intervene in primaries that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.

But Democratic strategists who spoke with POLITICO insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.

Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. “You may think that you’re saving energy, resources, but if you’re not putting forward your best fighters and they’re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you’re not actually helping Democrats,” he said.

Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren’t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren’t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: “It means you don’t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.”

Democratic fundraising is still lackluster

Republicans have generally raised more money than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.

In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 millionin the first six months of the year — about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival, House Majority PAC.

It’s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it’s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.

Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.

For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a POLITICO analysis.

Tanden is hopeful there “will be a fair amount of resources for Democratic units,” and pointed to Roy Cooper’s recently announced bid for North Carolina Senate, which broke fundraising records in its first 24 hours.

Warnke, the House Majority PAC spokesperson, said money cannot overcome negative optics from GOP policies.

Republicans’ “tariffs are raising prices on American families, and they are hiding from their constituents because of their deeply toxic budget,” he said. “No amount of money will salvage their chances at reelection.”

Jessica Piper contributed to this report.

Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.) is the first out transgender member of Congress. Within days of her election this past November, she faced backlash from certain members of the Republican Party. Nevertheless, McBride has continued to find ways to forge ties across the aisle.

In a conversation with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns, Rep. McBride discusses her hope to bring “a sense of kindness and grace” to Congress despite the “reality TV show nature” of today’s politics. The two also discuss the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, how the Democratic Party can rebuild its coalition without “reinforcing right-wing framing” over culture war issues and why her pursuit of bipartisan legislation is in part a direct response to President Trump.

“If we can't figure out how to solve problems across our political divide,” she tells Burns, “then I believe Trumpism only grows and worsens in this country.”

Plus, White House reporter Myah Ward on Trump’s trip to Scotland and what it revealed about the working relationship between the president and European leaders.

Listen and subscribe to The Conversation with Dasha Burns on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

Rep. Sarah McBride won’t be baited by GOP ‘provocateurs’ | The Conversation

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Several Democrats are already laying the groundwork for potential 2028 presidential runs, new campaign finance filings show, recruiting donors and running online ads that build their national profiles.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg led the way among Democrats talked about as presidential contenders with $1.6 million raised for his leadership PAC in the first half of the year, and a few Democratic governors raising hundreds of thousands of dollars each.

Together, they have already raised and spent millions of dollars this year, according to disclosures filed Thursday with the Federal Election Commission. The bulk of the money was spent on fundraising activities, including acquiring donor lists and running digital ads, that would facilitate a presidential run.

“If you're thinking about running for president in 2028, job number one is being seen doing everything you can to help Democrats win in 2026, which raising money for your leadership PAC allows you to do — to travel, to test out messages, to make contributions to other candidates, to build your online following,” said Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic consultant who worked on Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns. “Investing in your leadership PAC money now is critical because you have to build your fundraising operation now.”

While official campaign launches are likely to come after the 2026 midterms, several rumored White House contenders have leadership PACs, which allow them to raise and spend money not tied to a particular election. The PACs linked to these potential candidates largely focused on growing their digital presences over the first half of the year, the filings show, with governors who have less of a national profile running ads online nationally and spending money to build fundraising infrastructure.

Buttigieg and Govs. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan spent to acquire donor lists — a top expense for their leadership PACs. Beshear recently stumped in the early voting state of South Carolina; Whitmer appears less likely to mount a presidential bid.

List-building signals candidates’ ambitions for higher office, particularly with online fundraising a key pillar of successful Democratic campaigns over the past decade. By purchasing or renting Democratic donors’ contact information, candidates can more effectively target potential supporters, introduce themselves to a national audience and convert some of those donors into their own.

“You want to build up a strong email and text list for a few reasons — it'll increase your name ID, you can raise money for other candidates, and then raise money for yourself,” said Mike Nellis, a Democratic digital consultant. “If you're not spending money on growing the biggest possible audience for yourself right now, then you're being foolish. Frankly, all of them could be spending more money on it.”

Leadership PACs also allow political figures in blue states to steer money to competitive races, including by directly donating to vulnerable candidates or state parties, or by fundraising on their behalf. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, for example, has long tapped his extensive email and text lists to raise money for other candidates. Such efforts help blue-state Democrats build relationships across the country and engender goodwill within the party.

The PACs also run ads aimed at recruiting online backers. Newsom’s leadership PAC, Campaign for Democracy, invested another $1.5 million in digital ads in late June, according to its filing. The PAC, which launched in 2023 with a major transfer from Newsom’s gubernatorial campaign, reported $4.4 million cash on hand at the end of June.

Digital advertising helps candidates expand their name recognition and recruit donors outside their home states.

“It’s the small donations from folks like you that have the greatest impact,” read one ad that Beshear’s PAC, In This Together, ran on Facebook in June. “Your support helps us do what matters most: elect decent, compassionate leaders in Kentucky and nationwide.”

Beshear’s group, which has $496,000 cash on hand, spent $30,000 on digital advertising through the end of June, according to its FEC report.

While Beshear’s PAC has run Facebook ads that predominantly target his home state of Kentucky , it has also reached an audience across the country, according to data from Meta’s digital ad library. Similarly, Facebook ads from Whitmer’s group, Fight Like Hell PAC, have predominantly targeted Michigan users — but with some national promotion, too. Hers has $2.6 million cash on hand.

Both their PAC filings reflected their home-state advantage. Among itemized donors, those giving at least $200, each got more funds from their home states than any other — despite neither Kentucky nor Michigan being hotbeds of Democratic giving.

Buttigieg’s Win the Era PAC, which was largely dormant while he served in former President Joe Biden’s cabinet, also began spending on Facebook ads in July, according to the platform. It was the first time Buttigieg had run ads on his personal page since the former South Bend mayor ended his presidential campaign in 2020.

“While my name won’t be on a ballot in 2026, I am committed to doing the work that must be done to rebuild trust in our system: supporting emerging leaders, showing up in communities we too often ignore, and helping win more elections,” read one recent ad from Buttigieg on the platform.

A person close to Buttigieg said the former secretary will continue traveling to support Democrats in 2026 and host more of his own town halls , as he did in Iowa this spring. Buttigieg, who is not in elected office, employs a small staff through his PAC, which has $2.4 million on hand.

Amanda Stitt, who led Whitmer’s 2022 campaign, said in a statement that the governor “is hard at work serving her constituents, helping to lower their costs, grow jobs, and protect their freedoms. She’s proud to support candidates throughout the country with the same goals, especially in the toughest districts like the ones she won in Michigan.”

Representatives for Beshear and Newsom declined to comment.

Leadership PACs have also covered travel and other expenses to help candidates set up 2028 bids. Beshear’s group, for example, spent $18,000 on polling in March and April.

Not all potential 2028 candidates are raising money federally right now — Govs. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Wes Moore of Maryland, both of whom are seeking reelection next year, do not have federal leadership PACs. And billionaire Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is funding an advocacy group set up as a 501(c)(4) nonprofit that does not face stringent campaign finance reporting requirements.

McBride calls for responding to 'Trumpism' with bipartisanship | The Conversation

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MADISON, Wisconsin — A group of Democratic governors is urging its colleagues to get tough in countering Republican-backed efforts to gerrymander Texas’ congressional districts.

“It's incumbent upon Democrat governors, if they have the opportunity, to respond in kind,” outgoing Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly told reporters at a Democratic Governors Association meeting Friday. “I'm not a big believer in unilateral disarmament.”

The advice from Kelly, who chairs the DGA, came two days after Texas Republicans proposed congressional lines that would create five GOP-friendly House districts ahead of next year’s midterms. Democrats need only to net three seats to regain control of the lower chamber.

Kelly didn’t cite California Gov. Gavin Newsom by name, but he is the most high profile, and likeliest, example of a Democrat considering a counteroffensive remapping effort to squeeze more seats from a blue state. On Thursday, Newsom said he’d seek a November special election to have voters approve a new House map that would boost Democrats’ numbers. It’s an expensive and potentially perilous gamble that his Democratic colleagues throughout the country appear to be backing — a notably more aggressive posture for the party.

Various mid-decade redistricting efforts could launch a partisan arms race, as the parties look to redraw competing congressional maps to their own advantages. Democrats face a tougher path, as several blue states are bound by independent redistricting commissions and state constitutions, which would prevent them from quickly remaking maps. By contrast, discussions are already underway in several other Republican-controlled states that could follow Texas’ lead, including Missouri, Indiana and Florida.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz acknowledged there’s “validity” to concerns that Republicans might gain even more seats, should redistricting wars escalate.

But, Walz and Kelly said, “there's a bigger risk in doing nothing.”

“We can't just let this happen and act like it's fine, and hope that the courts fix it,” Kelly said. “We have no idea, quite honestly, at this point, what the courts might do, but by virtue of us responding in kind, we do send a message. We're not going to take this line down.”

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, who campaigned on ending partisan gerrymandering, called Trump’s requests for new maps “so un-American.” He nonetheless echoed Kelly’s call for Democrats to respond, adding when “you're up against the wall, you have to do whatever you can to stop it.”

Evers recently announced he will not seek another term, rendering the race to replace him a top-tier gubernatorial contest in one of the most politically divided states.

Kelly, Walz, Evers and several other governors, including Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Daniel McKee of Rhode Island, appeared together at the DGA press conference here, where they attacked President Donald Trump’s megabill.

Andrew Howard contributed reporting.

With help from Amira McKee

Mary Jobaida is a Bangladeshi-born, Muslim mother of three who wants to be the newest member of the state Legislature.

Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani hasn’t been elected mayor yet. But if — or when — he becomes Gracie Mansion’s newest resident, his Assembly seat in the left-leaning “Peoples’ Republic of Astoria” will become vacant — and Jobaida wants to fill it.

Jobaida touts her membership with the Democratic Socialists of America and says she wants to stand up to ICE, make CUNY, SUNY, pre-k and public transportation free, and even decriminalize the theft of food by hungry New Yorkers.

“It's actually a waste of money, waste of resources and hurtful to people,” she said, noting that “it’s not practical” to arrest someone for stealing nourishment.

Running for the seat, she said, was arranged by God: “I was not going to run against Zohran Mamdani, for sure, because we need progressive elected officials here, but I say it’s like it's planned by God and accepted by people,” she said, recounting how the district's lines were redrawn two years ago to include her residence.

The Queens Democratic Party may have other ideas. If Mamdani — who currently leads mayoral polls — is sworn in as mayor on Jan. 1, a special election would have to be called by Gov. Kathy Hochul by Jan. 11 and would likely take place in mid- to late-February.

That would mean the Democratic, Republican and potentially Working Families Party organizations could select their own candidate to run in a special. As City & State reported, the Queens Democrats might jump at the opportunity to replace Mamdani with a more moderate candidate.

Jobaida, who has already started contacting donors, canvassing and gathering volunteers for her bid, is one of the first candidates to emerge amid a wave of leftist energy that’s engulfed the city since Mamdani’s win. She has a website and told Playbook she will officially launch her campaign later this month.

Last month, Assemblymember Jessica González-Rojas announced she would primary state Sen. Jessica Ramos, an Andrew Cuomo foe turned ally. And Mamdani organizer Mahtab Khan registered Monday to run against Queens Assemblymember David Weprin.

One Democratic Party insider told Playbook that discussions around filling Mamdani’s seat aren’t expected to occur in earnest until the SOMOS conference in Puerto Rico — where politicos, lobbyists and policymakers fly to the Caribbean to rub elbows and drink rum in the days immediately after the general election.

The Working Families Party did not respond to repeated requests for comment on whether it would pick a candidate — like Jobaida — to run for the seat on its ballot line. The co-chair of the city’s Democratic Socialists of America chapter told Playbook the party will be hosting “several forums this fall to hear from interested candidates” before its membership votes on whom it wants to endorse.

And Mamdani and Jobaida haven’t spoken yet, though Jobaida plans to speak with him “very soon.”

Jobaida is about 45 years old. She was born in a rural village in Bangladesh that never recorded her birthdate and arrived to this country shortly after 9/11 with a “pretty messed-up education from Bangladesh,” she said.

She attended community college before enrolling in NYU on a scholarship. She got a start in political organizing in 2007 for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and then worked on Bill Thompson’s mayoral bid. She has taught kindergarten as a teacher in public school classrooms. She also handled constituent services for Jessica Ramos’ office (though she’s not sure if she’ll vote for her former boss yet).

In 2020, Jobaida mounted a primary challenge against longtime incumbent Kathy Nolan in Queens’ 37th Assembly District and lost by just 1,500 votes. After Mamdani’s primary win, Jobaida said she received calls and visits from community leaders, telling her, “You cannot sit quiet; you have to run for this seat.”

“I believe I'm going to win this special election,” Jobaida told Playbook. “If it is special election, it's sealed. I believe it's going to be a piece of cake.”

Though she believes the country has deep flaws with its criminal justice system and its treatment of the poor, she has immense gratitude for the nation that welcomed her with open arms.

“We are passing a very difficult moment as a country, as a community,” Jobaida said, referencing the recent shooting of a border patrol officer and border czar Tom Homan’s promise to “flood the zone” with ICE agents in its wake.

“Another way of saying it is like labor pain is harder before the childbirth,” she said. “We are going through some very difficult childbirth, labor pain, now, and I'm hopeful that we're going to see a beautiful America soon.” — Jason Beeferman

BEHIND THE NUMBERS: Adams unveiled a whopping figure at his housing presser in Brooklyn today: 426,800.

That’s the total number of housing units he says his administration has created, preserved or planned over the course of his tenure.

For New Yorkers looking around and wondering why, despite this influx, finding an affordable apartment still feels like competing in the Hunger Games, the operative word is “planned.”

Planned units — which include projections from rezonings, some of which aren’t even yet approved — account for nearly half of the total sum.

Those 197,000 projected homes include the yet-to-be-seen fruits of the mayor’s wide-ranging City of Yes blueprint, neighborhood plans like the yet-to-be-approved rezoning of Long Island City, private rezonings, housing RFPs and other projections.

Many of these initiatives rely on the whims of the private sector, and development decisions that are based on myriad economic factors outside of the city’s control.

“Everything is dependent on the real estate market more generally, everything we do,” Kim Darga, deputy commissioner for development at HPD, said during a briefing on the numbers.

“The mixed-income programs are very dependent also on the greater climate in which we are operating, so what happens with interest rates could drive what happens, what happens with tariffs could impact what happens,” she continued.

Adams nonetheless touted the 426,800-unit figure as far surpassing previous mayors’ housing totals and crowned his administration as “the most pro-housing” in city history. — Janaki Chadha

POT PROBLEMS: Gov. Kathy Hochul said her administration will support cannabis businesses that were incorrectly granted licenses by the state.

“It’s a major screw-up,” the governor told reporters today. “When I found out about it I was angry to say the least.”

Some 150 businesses were found to have been granted licenses for storefronts that are illegally located after regulators mistakenly measured how close they were to schools.

Hochul said she explored an executive order to fix the problem, but instead determined a more durable solution is a change in the law. She blamed the prior leadership at the Office of Cannabis Management for the error.

“I’ll protect these businesses,” she said, while adding that “we need to get the law changed to have a fix.”

State lawmakers, including influential Democrats such as Senate Finance Chair Liz Krueger, have signaled support for changing the law so the retailers can stay put.

In a statement, the Office of Cannabis Management downplayed a report from Spectrum News that found the state knew about the issue for a month before alerting business owners.

“OCM notified impacted applicants and licensees within days of confirming the issue and identifying the scope of redress opportunities,” the office’s spokesperson, Taylor Randi, said in a statement. She added that its acting director, Felicia Reid, began reviewing dispensaries’ compliance “over the past year.”

OCM has also scrambled to dispel reports that dispensaries with locations too close to schools will have to close up shop. Randi said that as long as existing businesses properly file their applications for a renewal, they will be allowed to remain open until legislators come back to Albany to fix the problem. — Nick Reisman and Jason Beeferman

ICE’D OUT WITH AN APPOINTMENT: The Trump administration’s response to a lawsuit filed this week by House members barred from inspecting migrant detention facilities has revolved around the Democrats making unannounced visits.

But lawmakers in New York have sought access both announced and unannounced. Rep. Dan Goldman requested an appointment in June and was still denied entry to the 10th floor of 26 Federal Plaza in lower Manhattan. Democratic lawmakers have simultaneously cited their authority to conduct oversight without giving advance notice of “detention facilities holding individuals in federal immigration custody.”

The 67-page lawsuit filed Wednesday in federal court in Washington includes Goldman and Adriano Espaillat as plaintiffs. It references new DHS guidelines that congressional Democrats say infringe on their authority, including the need for seven days’ notice ahead of a visit.

In June, Goldman’s team emailed Immigration and Customs Enforcement staff a request for an appointment nine days before he and Rep. Jerry Nadler came to 26 Federal Plaza amid reports of unsafe conditions. They still were denied access.

The reason, according to DHS? The 10th floor of the building is a processing, not a detention, facility.

“These members of Congress could have just scheduled a tour,” Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said earlier this week in a statement reacting to the legal complaint by 12 members of Congress.

McLaughlin was asked again today on Fox News about the lawsuit and why lawmakers “think that they can just show up announced.”

“Exactly, this is about political theater,” she said in response. “This isn’t oversight.”

Goldman, Espaillat, Nadler and Rep. Nydia Velázquez have said migrants are being held for several days there in unsafe conditions as revealed in videos. And they have said they would use every tool to shine light on the treatment of migrants as President Donald Trump escalates his deportation agenda. — Emily Ngo

LET ’EM OFF EASY: Turkish construction executive Erden Arkan should be sentenced to only one year probation after giving illegal straw donations to Adams’ campaign, his lawyer argued in a memo Friday while denying Arkan had any coordination with the Turkish government.

Arkan, the co-founder of KSK Construction Group, pleaded guilty in January. His lawyer, Jonathan Rosen, said the federal probation office recommended that he receive only a year’s probation and no prison time.

Arkan “did not ‘coordinate’ his decision to use straw donors, the scheme at issue in this case, with the Turkish Consulate or any Turkish official,” despite what prosecutors alleged, Rosen wrote. A Turkish Consulate official invited Arkan to a meeting where he met Adams, but the decision to give illegal straw donations in the names of his employees came only after Arkan tried and failed to solicit donations legally from business contractors, who largely refused to give to Adams.

“Fearing embarrassment from the now impending fundraiser, Erden pivoted to a new strategy,” Rosen explained.

Rosen also argues that federal prosecutors were using Arkan to get to Adams, and he should be let off now that Adams’ case has been dropped. “The government’s characterization of Eric Adams as a ‘tainted prosecution’ ... calls into question any bona fide federal interest in Mr. Arkan’s continued prosecution in federal court,” he wrote, quoting former Trump administration Department of Justice official Emil Bove’s letter.

A spokesperson for the Southern District of New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. — Jeff Coltin

— FAKED SIGNATURES: Mayor Eric Adams’ reelection campaign submitted forged petition signatures in an effort to get on the November ballot as an independent candidate. (Gothamist)

— TALL ORDER: The Department of Education approved close to $750,000 in catering spending at a single Brooklyn restaurant in the fiscal year 2025. (amNewYork)

— HEALTH CUTS: Federal funding cuts to Medicaid could worsen New York’s nursing shortage. (City & State)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Roy Cooper has an early, six-point lead in the North Carolina Senate race, according to the first public poll of the marquee contest.

The Emerson College poll, released Friday morning, found the Democratic former North Carolina governor with 47 percent support to Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley’s 41 percent. Another 12 percent of voters are undecided.

The North Carolina Senate race — likely between Cooper and Whatley, who have each cleared their respective primary fields — is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive in 2026. It’s the top offensive target for Democrats, who must net four seats to retake the Senate. In June, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after clashing with President Donald Trump over his domestic agenda and warning fellow Republicans about the Medicaid cuts in their spending package.

Cooper, who finished his second term in 2024, starts the open race to replace Tillis with stronger name recognition and favorability than Whatley, a first-time candidate. Most voters view Cooper positively, one-third perceive him negatively and just 13 percent are unsure, the poll found.

By contrast, nearly two-thirds of voters do not know or are unsure of Whatley and another 17 percent view him favorably — capturing his challenge to quickly define himself with an electorate that isn’t familiar with him.

Cooper also holds a 19-point edge among independent voters, a significant bloc that supported him during his gubernatorial campaigns. For now, these voters prefer Cooper to Whatley 47 percent to 28 percent.

But in a preview of what will be a tight Senate race in a hyper-partisan environment, voters in purple North Carolina are evenly divided on whom they prefer on the generic congressional ballot: 41.5 percent support would back the Democrat and 41.3 percent would back the Republican.

In the 2028 presidential primary, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads among Democratic voters in North Carolina with 17 percent support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who opted against a gubernatorial run this week, receives 12 percent, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 10 percent and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 7 percent. Nearly a quarter of the Democratic voters are undecided.

Among Republicans, Vice President JD Vance dominates the GOP primary with 53 percent backing him, compared to 7 percent for Florida Gov. and failed 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis and 5 percent for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Emerson College conducted the poll from July 28 through July 30, interviewing 1,000 registered North Carolina voters. It has a 3-point margin of error.